Here are some of the ingredients prompting the change: This past week, the Wall Street Journal dedicated several columns suggesting that the commercial market was on its way down. To summarize, the Wall Street Journal showed that nonresidential construction was down 1.7% in January versus the prior month, office space sales declined 42% in the fourth quarter of 2007 right as the credit tightening began, and that The International Council of Shopping Centers announced that U.S. store closures could reach 5,770 up from 4,603 last year.
More storm clouds are on the horizon according to another article quoted in the Wall Street Journal. The article suggested that U.S.'s community banks are sitting on a commercial loan time bomb. Community banks have migrated to underwriting more commercial loans as they've been pushed out of the residential mortgage market by Wall Street money. "Small and midsized banks, with less than $10 billion in assets, have a total of $323 billion outstanding loans", the article stated. This represents approximately 285% of the remaining banks' capital.
Let's speculate that approximately 1% of those loans referenced above were written off by the community banks - for a total of $3 billion write off. Not only would that result in several community closing, but it would also reduce the lending capacity of those institutions by at least $32 billion (using a 10x factor due to the leverage employed by most banks). That means $32 billion in potential loans to you and me to buy real estate would evaporate.
Is the sky falling? No, not exactly.
Commercial loan delinquencies are still low at 1.94% in the forth quarter of 2007 (it did rise modestly over the prior year). In the 1990's the commercial loan delinquencies reached 10%, so we still have a long way to go. Many experts suggest the most weakness in the retail segment, which is most susceptible to the downward movement in the national economy. So what does all this mean to you and me, who deal in the small balance commercial loan market? Here's what I think:
- Higher equity requirements. A contraction in the loan to value ratio means higher equity contributions by the owner/investor. Solution: If the cash isn't available to increase the equity contribution to complete the deal, approach the seller about a seller second mortgage. Your primary financing institution will look at the seller second as quasi-equity due to their 1st priority in the transaction.
- As properties come under increased scrutiny, the borrower's underlying credit will become increasingly important. So having a healthy credit score backed by personal liquidity will help you get that deal completed.
- Find other creative ways to finance the deal. For example, you could arrange a master lease agreement with an option to buy (at the current market value) with the owner. Under the master lease agreement you pay the owner a monthly lease payment but you run the property including collecting rent and paying expenses. Your goal is to then increase the value of the property and cash flow during the term of the lease (usually three to five years). Remember your option is based on the value today, not the value your going to create during the lease term. You could also negotiate that a portion of your lease payment go towards the option price.
- Buy on option on the property today for a small upfront fee. This locks up the property while you find a solution to the financing arrangement. Make sure that the upfront option price goes towards the purchase price.
Keep looking at the horizon for those storm clouds and I'll be happy to be your real estate weatherman!! Remember good deals get done!
